I think you've misinterpreted Moe's TTT. I don't think we ever found out Moe's ultimate goal/predictions specifically, but IIRC he largely couldn't predict much of anything past the Circumfixtion, but essentially knew without Kell he'd fail, so hoped Kell would make it alive to him, unite humanity under one religion (the specific one was irrelevant) then rise up to challenge the Consult before it was too late.
Kellhus' "takeover" of the Thought was basically removing Moe from the plan and re-formulating it with this own flare. In specifics it might have been different but in generalities it was mostly the same. The Thought was constructed
Generally speaking, I think most of everything Bakker has ever said is either purposefully misleading (recent stuff in the last few years), or unaware of the specifics (older info from way back) which is now irrelevant or largely misleading. Regarding Serwe, whatever she was supposed to be, I think it was intended to be very clear by now. Thus, I think Serwe's whole thing was being the sympathetic catalyst which ends up uniting all of humanity against the consult. Yes, that's mundane and uninteresting, but I think that's all there is too it - things aren't always as complicated as we make them out to be.
Keep in mind his Serwe comments were largely as a rebuttal to the online stuff happening surrounding him at the time. I think Bakker has shown time and again a pretty extreme misunderstanding of the people he's talking to or trying to reach out too, and most probably (imo) the serwe comment was worded very poorly to begin with and is now taken out of context in the Earwa online noosphere.