Hey guys I wanted to revisit this before we moved on, since the question of Skeaos' replacement led into a pretty big question in my mind.
I definitely think he's been replaced the whole time. The first occurrence where he does something uncharacteristic appears at the end of the first Emperor chapter during the meeting with Mallahet:
“Impossible!”Skeaös spat.
Xerius whirled to face the old Counsel, stunned by his audacity.
“What’s this now, Ikurei? You let your dogs howl at your table?”
Xerius knew he should be outraged, but such an outburst from Skeaös was . . . unprecedented.
“But he lies, God-of-Men!” Skeaös cried. “This is a heathen trick, meant to extort concessions—”
What's more important to me is
why he slipped and made the outburst. As we know, the Skin Spies endeavor to support the Holy War and Skeaös is no different. The original plan for the Indenture was to stall the early arrivals from marching too soon. Maithanet, knowing the Nansurium was doomed, chose Momemn as the staging ground hoping the Emperor would make such a play. Xerius confirms this to Istriya when she chastises him for antagonizing the Shriah:
He knows as well as we that these Men of the Tusk are fools, that they think the God himself has ordained the overthrow of the heathen. If I provide Calmemunis with everything he requests, he’d march in a fortnight, certain that he could destroy the Fanim with his paltry household alone. Maithanet will mime outrage, of course, but he’ll secretly applaud what I do, knowing it’ll purchase the Holy War the time it needs to gather. Why else do you think he commanded it gather about Momemn rather than Sumna? Aside from taxing my purse, he knew I would do this.”
The axis of his plot turns on the assumption that eventually, Maithanet must instruct the Great Names to sign the Indenture, as he inevitably needs the Imperial Saik. He reveals this assumption when replying to Skaurus early in the parley:
But none of this makes Maithanet’s Holy War your instrument. You hold no hammer above us.”
“But I do, Skauras. The Men of the Tusk know nothing of your people—even less than Maithanet. Once they understand they war not only against you but against your Cishaurim, the leaders of the Holy War will sign my Indenture. The Holy War requires a School, and that School happens to be mine.”
Of course, Maithanet has subverted this plan by enlisting the Scarlet Spires. So long as Xerius is kept in the dark, Maithanet reaps the benefit of the Indenture without having to pay for it. It's a brilliant maneuver, until Skaurus leaks the secret to Xerius, prompting the uncharacteristic outburst of the Skin Spy:
“Even we know more of your accursed Shriah’s plans than you.”
Xerius glanced at Skeaös’s face, saw concern rather than calculation furrow his crinkled features. What was happening?
The way the outburst is described, it sounds like the thing called Skeaös knew about the Scarlet Spires and had been misleading Xerius, to set up the win-win for Maithanet. When the secret is out, Xerius shifts his plot to a darker course, first sacrificing the Vulgar Holy War as an example so Conphas can play the indispensable role originally meant for the Saik, then to eventually betray the Holy War somewhere before Shimeh. This is very much not what the Consult intended, hence the turning point where Skeaös is no longer supporting the plot and is actively trying to talk him out of it.
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I know that was pretty long winded but if you followed this far, this is where the question comes up. Xerius prides himself for finally coming up with something entirely on his own. Which should be a giant red flag for rereaders, as the most powerful tool in the Dunyain's arsenal of manipulation is making someone think that an idea was their own. Xerius never would have shifted his plan if it weren't for Skaurus, and it's very likely that Skaurus' parley would have never taken place were it not premeditated by Moenghus.
My question is this: why would Moenghus intentionally undermine the Holy War so much? Whether the Vulgar Holy War would have been more of a liability, it was nonetheless half their strength, it was such a loss that the Skin Spies were doing everything they could to prevent it from happening. Not to mention, if the Ikurei plot came to fruition, the Holy War would have been sabotaged before reaching Shimeh. If we didn't know better, it almost seems like Moenghus was working for his own self-preservation, manipulating the Padiraja to cede half his empire so that he and the Cishaurim could survive. Why?
My only guess is that this was calculated to provide Kellhus and Cnaiur opportunities to seize the Holy War - first on the issue of the Indenture, then in thwarting the plot to betray the Holy War in the Carathay or after Caraskand. I'm interested in knowing what you guys think, even if you think I'm reading too much into it!
